On October 31, CNN and other news outlets reported that the U.S. Department of Defense had given the White House permission to send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. The decision was made following a DoD assessment that examined how U.S. stockpiles would be impacted if Tomahawks were provided to Ukraine. According to CNN, as well as reports from Newsweek and The Hill, the Department of Defense found that sending the long-range missiles to the Ukrainians would not negatively impact U.S. stockpiles and national security. Having cleared this barrier, the final decision to provide Tomahawks to Ukraine now lies with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Ukrainian officials will be eager to see how the White House responds. Last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the White House to discuss the current developments in the Russia-Ukraine war with Trump. During their meeting, the Ukrainian president stressed the importance of Tomahawks, stating that the long-range missiles would be used to strike military targets deep within Russian territory. Zelenskyy explained that targeting ammunition depots and energy facilities within the Russian Federation would hinder Russian capabilities that enable the Russians to continue their war in Ukraine. Zelenskyy also argued that access to long-range missiles would put pressure on the Russian Federation to end its war.
Meanwhile, the Russians have claimed that a potential delivery of Tomahawks to Ukraine could lead to “serious escalation” in the Russia-Ukraine war. Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously stated that a Russian response to Ukraine would be “very serious, if not overwhelming,” should the Ukrainians receive Tomahawks. The Russian leader, however, did not specify what a Russian reaction would entail.
In response to Putin’s statements, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States imposed new penalties on Russia in mid-October, targeting some of the Russian Federation’s most prominent oil companies. The latest sanctions aim to pressure Russia’s energy sector, an industry whose revenue has reportedly helped finance Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (The Russians use revenue from energy sales to purchase weapons and equipment for the war in Ukraine.) The EU, UK, and U.S. hoped that these new penalties would put additional pressure on Russia to end its full-scale military incursion into Ukraine.
But several days after these Western countries implemented these new penalties, the Russian Federation launched a new drone and missile strike across Ukraine. PBS reported that the Russian attack on October 30 resulted in power outages across Ukraine. The same PBS report stated that 650 drones and more than 50 missiles were used in the latest Russian bombardment of Ukraine. Over one dozen Ukrainians were injured in the attack, many of whom, PBS said, were children.
Given the latest event in the Russia-Ukraine war, discussions on Ukrainian access to long-range missiles have resurfaced. The Pentagon’s decision to approve U.S. supplies of Tomahawks to Ukraine on October 31, one day after the latest Russian missile bombardment on Ukraine, has further contributed to this conversation.
While the Ukrainians have previously struck military targets within Russian territory, Tomahawks would expand the scope of Ukraine’s range into Russia. This would include the ability to strike military and industrial facilities near Moscow and St. Petersburg. Aside from the extended range of these long-range missiles, Tomahawks travel fast, and they are more accurate than the FP-1 “Fire Point” and AN-196 “Liutyi” missiles currently being used by Ukraine. Tomahawk missiles are also harder to detect and intercept by radar, meaning they would cause the Russian Federation problems should Ukraine receive this capability.
Finally, if Ukraine acquires Tomahawks from the United States, it is estimated that there would be hundreds of Russian military targets within striking range of Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War states that the areas the Ukrainians could hit within Russia include military bases, logistics hubs, airfields, command centers, and ammunition depots. The Ukrainians believe that damaging or destroying these Russian military and industrial facilities with Tomahawks could further put pressure on the Russian Federation to end its ongoing invasion.
Western sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on Russian military targets have previously been unable to dissuade Russia from continuing its military incursion into Ukraine. Now, with the Pentagon announcing that potential shipments of Tomahawks to Ukraine would not hinder current U.S. stockpiles, Putin and Zelenskyy will be eager to see how Trump will rule on these long-range shipments. The outcome of Trump’s decision will not only impact the future of the Russia-Ukraine war, but it will also signal how the U.S. will continue to be involved as it seeks to achieve peace between Russia and Ukraine.