World leaders will begin to gather Thursday for two weeks of climate talks in the United Arab Emirates. Discussions will center around what governments need to do going forward to stop temperatures from rising beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius, a point that would have catastrophic impacts for the planet if passed.
This year, the United Nations climate change conference (COP28) is happening in Dubai, where just across the Persian Gulf this summer, heat indexes regularly exceeded 60 degrees Celsius (140 degrees Fahrenheit), a threshold that tests the limits for human survival, studies find. Oil workers in Iranâs southwestern province of Khuzestan illustrated the point by posting a video on social media showing themselves frying an omelette on the ground.
Iranâs environment is rapidly degrading. The Iranian population has endured droughts, floods, heatwaves, air pollution, dust storms and wildfires because of decades of mismanagement by the government. Climate change is causing these events to happen faster and harsher.
The nation offers a glimpse into the very conditions that the world leaders across the Persian Gulf are racing to prevent.
Too Hot To Handle
The 1.5 degree goal was set during 2015âs COP21 in France and established by the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty signed by almost every nation. Iran, Yemen and Libya are the only three countries that havenât ratified the landmark Paris Agreement despite the fact that the Middle East is heating up much faster than other parts of the world, a trend that experts say threatens the livelihood and stability of respective communities.
âThis can lead to other concerning climate change consequences in the region such as extended droughts and extreme weather,â says Mohammed Mahmoud, the director of the climate and water program at the Middle East Institute.
Adding insult to injury, many cities across Iran ran out of water, making it that much harder to manage daily lives during the scorching heatwaves.
Several reasons are behind Iranâs water depletion over the years. First is the fact that âauthorities have emptied the water resources in multiple areas for high number of dam building and unsustainable agricultural practices,â says Vahid Pourmardan, a former official at Iranâs Department of Environment.
This has caused iconic lakes and wetlands to dry in many parts of Iran. âWhen there is no water, environmental disasters such as sand and dust storms become more dangerous and severe,â Pourmardan adds.
Case in point, over 1,000 people experienced health problems in Sistan and Baluchistan when dust storms blanketed the region for days at a time. The province is Iranâs second largest and one of the most water scarce in the country.
While it is important to note that mismanagement is the leading cause of Iranâs environmental woes, experts say that climate change is speeding up its demise.
“With rising global temperatures, the adverse effects of climate change are expected to significantly worsen in Iran,â says Sam Loni, a research associate in new economics of deep decarbonisation at the University of Oxfordâs Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment.
âAnd yet, in the face of these rapidly escalating risks, the authorities are not only showing a concerning lack of preparedness, but in some instances, the government is actually pursuing policies that [are] further contributing to the problem,â Loni adds.
I Will If You Will
Iran is on the list of top 10 largest global emitters of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that is the leading cause of climate change.
Ahead of COP28, the Climate Action Tracker has rated Iranâs efforts to decrease its emissions as critically insufficient, meaning that the government is doing close to nothing to collaborate with international measures in place.
âIran is lagging behind in both climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies,â says Amin Dezfuli, senior scientist at NASAâs Goddard Space Flight Center and University of Maryland in Baltimore.
âThis is evident in its relatively high emissions per capita and an inadequate response to recent extreme weather events,â he adds.
Representatives from Iran attended the last two climate summits without offering a viable plan for lowering the amount of greenhouse gases that the country releases into the atmosphere. The head of Iranâs Department of Environment issued a statement at COP26 saying that the reason Iran hadnât taken steps to tackle the climate crisis is because of the United States sanctions.
âI donât think COP28 will be any different,â says Pourmardan. âEnvironmental officials will probably blame some external factor for their lack of action, the same way they have done in the past,â he adds.
Iranâs Department of Environment did not respond to a request for comment.
It remains to be seen what transpires at the climate summit in Dubai. But experts believe that if countries donât commit to fighting climate change in the Middle East, the region will be grappling with serious challenges such as forced migration, conflict, disease and food and water insecurity, to name a few.
“Human activities, such as burning fossil fuels and land-use changes have altered the climate system, leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather events,â says Dezfuli.
âIt is crucial to recognize that the Earthâs climate is a dynamic system; therefore, changes in one country can have far-reaching impacts on neighboring nations and beyond,â he adds.